Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
Records 1-27 (of 27 Records) |
Query Trace: Madewell ZJ[original query] |
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Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 U.S. Mpox outbreak: Support for public health decision making and lessons learned
Charniga K , Madewell ZJ , Masters NB , Asher J , Nakazawa Y , Spicknall IH . Epidemics 2024 47 100755 In June of 2022, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered more effectively through infectious disease modeling. Infectious disease models have shown to be valuable tools for decision making during outbreaks; however, model complexity often makes communicating the results and limitations of models to decision makers difficult. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the CDC Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases (early, exponential growth, peak, and decline) during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naïve Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences. |
Identifying delays in healthcare seeking and provision: The Three Delays-in-Healthcare and mortality among infants and children aged 1-59 months
Garcia Gomez E , Igunza KA , Madewell ZJ , Akelo V , Onyango D , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Hossain MZ , Chowdhury MAI , Islam KM , Assefa N , Scott JAG , Madrid L , Tilahun Y , Orlien S , Kotloff KL , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Mehta A , Magaço A , Torres-Fernandez D , Nhacolo A , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Ogbuanu I , Cain CJ , Luke R , Kamara SIB , Legesse H , Madhi S , Dangor Z , Mahtab S , Wise A , Adam Y , Whitney CG , Mutevedzi PC , Blau DM , Breiman RF , Tippett Barr BA , Rees CA . PLOS Glob Public Health 2024 4 (2) e0002494 Delays in illness recognition, healthcare seeking, and in the provision of appropriate clinical care are common in resource-limited settings. Our objective was to determine the frequency of delays in the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare", and factors associated with delays, among deceased infants and children in seven countries with high childhood mortality. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using data from verbal autopsies and medical records for infants and children aged 1-59 months who died between December 2016 and February 2022 in six sites in sub-Saharan Africa and one in South Asia (Bangladesh) and were enrolled in Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). Delays in 1) illness recognition in the home/decision to seek care, 2) transportation to healthcare facilities, and 3) the receipt of clinical care in healthcare facilities were categorized according to the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare". Comparisons in factors associated with delays were made using Chi-square testing. Information was available for 1,326 deaths among infants and under 5 children. The majority had at least one identified delay (n = 854, 64%). Waiting >72 hours after illness recognition to seek health care (n = 422, 32%) was the most common delay. Challenges in obtaining transportation occurred infrequently when seeking care (n = 51, 4%). In healthcare facilities, prescribed medications were sometimes unavailable (n = 102, 8%). Deceased children aged 12-59 months experienced more delay than infants aged 1-11 months (68% vs. 61%, P = 0.018). Delays in seeking clinical care were common among deceased infants and children. Additional study to assess the frequency of delays in seeking clinical care and its provision among children who survive is warranted. |
Post-mortem investigation of deaths due to pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia from 2016 to 2022: an observational study
Mahtab S , Blau DM , Madewell ZJ , Ogbuanu I , Ojulong J , Lako S , Legesse H , Bangura JS , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Xerinda E , Fernandes F , Varo R , Sow SO , Kotloff KL , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Sidibe D , Onyango D , Akelo V , Gethi D , Verani JR , Revathi G , Scott JAG , Assefa N , Madrid L , Bizuayehu H , Tirfe TT , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Islam KM , Alam M , Zahid Hossain M , Dangor Z , Baillie VL , Hale M , Mutevedzi P , Breiman RF , Whitney CG , Madhi SA . Lancet Child Adolesc Health 2024 BACKGROUND: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network programme undertakes post-mortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), together with collection of ante-mortem clinical information, to investigate causes of childhood deaths across multiple countries. We aimed to evaluate the overall contribution of pneumonia in the causal pathway to death and the causative pathogens of fatal pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the CHAMPS Network. METHODS: In this observational study we analysed deaths occurring between Dec 16, 2016, and Dec 31, 2022, in the CHAMPS Network across six countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and one in South Asia (Bangladesh). A standardised approach of MITS was undertaken on decedents within 24-72 h of death. Diagnostic tests included blood culture, multi-organism targeted nucleic acid amplifications tests (NAATs) of blood and lung tissue, and histopathology examination of various organ tissue samples. An interdisciplinary expert panel at each site reviewed case data to attribute the cause of death and pathogenesis thereof on the basis of WHO-recommended reporting standards. FINDINGS: Pneumonia was attributed in the causal pathway of death in 455 (40·6%) of 1120 decedents, with a median age at death of 9 (IQR 4-19) months. Causative pathogens were identified in 377 (82·9%) of 455 pneumonia deaths, and multiple pathogens were implicated in 218 (57·8%) of 377 deaths. 306 (67·3%) of 455 deaths occurred in the community or within 72 h of hospital admission (presumed to be community-acquired pneumonia), with the leading bacterial pathogens being Streptococcus pneumoniae (108 [35·3%]), Klebsiella pneumoniae (78 [25·5%]), and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (37 [12·1%]). 149 (32·7%) deaths occurred 72 h or more after hospital admission (presumed to be hospital-acquired pneumonia), with the most common pathogens being K pneumoniae (64 [43·0%]), Acinetobacter baumannii (19 [12·8%]), S pneumoniae (15 [10·1%]), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15 [10·1%]). Overall, viruses were implicated in 145 (31·9%) of 455 pneumonia-related deaths, including 54 (11·9%) of 455 attributed to cytomegalovirus and 29 (6·4%) of 455 attributed to respiratory syncytial virus. INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia contributed to 40·6% of all childhood deaths in this analysis. The use of post-mortem MITS enabled biological ascertainment of the cause of death in the majority (82·9%) of childhood deaths attributed to pneumonia, with more than one pathogen being commonly implicated in the same case. The prominent role of K pneumoniae, non-typable H influenzae, and S pneumoniae highlight the need to review empirical management guidelines for management of very severe pneumonia in low-income and middle-income settings, and the need for research into new or improved vaccines against these pathogens. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Burden of child mortality from malaria in high endemic areas: results from the CHAMPS Network using minimally invasive tissue sampling
Ogbuanu IU , Otieno K , Varo R , Sow SO , Ojulong J , Duduyemi B , Kowuor D , Cain CJ , Rogena EA , Onyango D , Akelo V , Tippett Barr BA , terKuile F , Kotloff KL , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Juma J , Assefa N , Assegid N , Acham Y , Madrid L , Scott JAG , Arifeen SE , Gurley ES , Mahtab S , Dangor Z , Wadula J , Dutoit J , Madhi SA , Mandomando I , Torres-Fernandez D , Kincardett M , Mabunda R , Mutevedzi P , Madewell ZJ , Blau DM , Whitney CG , Samuels AM , Bassat Q . J Infect 2024 BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. However, accurate estimates of malaria prevalence and causality among patients who die at the country level are lacking due to the limited specificity of diagnostic tools used to attribute etiologies. Accurate estimates are crucial for prioritizing interventions and resources aimed at reducing malaria-related mortality. METHODS: Seven Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network sites collected comprehensive data on stillbirths and children <5 years, using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). A DeCoDe (Determination of Cause of Death) panel employed standardized protocols for assigning underlying, intermediate, and immediate causes of death, integrating sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory (including extensive microbiology, histopathology, and malaria testing), and verbal autopsy data. Analyses were conducted to ascertain the strength of evidence for cause of death (CoD), describe factors associated with malaria-related deaths, estimate malaria-specific mortality, and assess the proportion of preventable deaths. FINDINGS: Between December 3, 2016, and December 31, 2022, 2673 deaths underwent MITS and had a CoD attributed from four CHAMPS sites with at least 1 malaria-attributed death. No malaria-attributable deaths were documented among 891 stillbirths or 924 neonatal deaths, therefore this analysis concentrates on the remaining 858 deaths among children aged 1-59 months. Malaria was in the causal chain for 42.9% (126/294) of deaths from Sierra Leone, 31.4% (96/306) in Kenya, 18.2% (36/198) in Mozambique, 6.7% (4/60) in Mali, and 0.3% (1/292) in South Africa. Compared to non-malaria related deaths, malaria-related deaths skewed towards older infants and children (p<0.001), with 71.0% among ages 12-59 months. Malaria was the sole infecting pathogen in 184 (70.2%) of malaria-attributed deaths, whereas bacterial and viral co-infections were identified in the causal pathway in 24·0% and 12.2% of cases, respectively. Malnutrition was found at a similar level in the causal pathway of both malaria (26.7%) and non-malaria (30.7%, p=0.256) deaths. Less than two-thirds (164/262; 62.6%) of malaria deaths had received antimalarials prior to death. Nearly all (98·9%) malaria-related deaths were deemed preventable. INTERPRETATION: Malaria remains a significant cause of childhood mortality in the CHAMPS malaria-endemic sites. The high bacterial co-infection prevalence among malaria deaths underscores the potential benefits of antibiotics for severe malaria patients. Compared to non-malaria deaths, many of malaria-attributed deaths are preventable through accessible malaria control measures. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1126780]. |
Child deaths caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia: a secondary analysis of Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data
Verani JR , Blau DM , Gurley ES , Akelo V , Assefa N , Baillie V , Bassat Q , Berhane M , Bunn J , Cossa ACA , El Arifeen S , Gunturu R , Hale M , Igunza A , Keita AM , Kenneh S , Kotloff KL , Kowuor D , Mabunda R , Madewell ZJ , Madhi S , Madrid L , Mahtab S , Miguel J , Murila FV , Ogbuanu IU , Ojulong J , Onyango D , Oundo JO , Scott JAG , Sow S , Tapia M , Traore CB , Velaphi S , Whitney CG , Mandomando I , Breiman RF . Lancet Microbe 2024 BACKGROUND: Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important cause of nosocomial and community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis in children, and antibiotic-resistant K pneumoniae is a growing public health threat. We aimed to characterise child mortality associated with this pathogen in seven high-mortality settings. METHODS: We analysed Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data on the causes of deaths in children younger than 5 years and stillbirths in sites located in seven countries across sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and south Asia (Bangladesh) from Dec 9, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. CHAMPS sites conduct active surveillance for deaths in catchment populations and following reporting of an eligible death or stillbirth seek consent for minimally invasive tissue sampling followed by extensive aetiological testing (microbiological, molecular, and pathological); cases are reviewed by expert panels to assign immediate, intermediate, and underlying causes of death. We reported on susceptibility to antibiotics for which at least 30 isolates had been tested, and excluded data on antibiotics for which susceptibility testing is not recommended for Klebsiella spp due to lack of clinical activity (eg, penicillin and ampicillin). FINDINGS: Among 2352 child deaths with cause of death assigned, 497 (21%, 95% CI 20-23) had K pneumoniae in the causal chain of death; 100 (20%, 17-24) had K pneumoniae as the underlying cause. The frequency of K pneumoniae in the causal chain was highest in children aged 1-11 months (30%, 95% CI 26-34; 144 of 485 deaths) and 12-23 months (28%, 22-34; 63 of 225 deaths); frequency by site ranged from 6% (95% CI 3-11; 11 of 184 deaths) in Bangladesh to 52% (44-61; 71 of 136 deaths) in Ethiopia. K pneumoniae was in the causal chain for 450 (22%, 95% CI 20-24) of 2023 deaths that occurred in health facilities and 47 (14%, 11-19) of 329 deaths in the community. The most common clinical syndromes among deaths with K pneumoniae in the causal chain were sepsis (44%, 95% CI 40-49; 221 of 2352 deaths), sepsis in conjunction with pneumonia (19%, 16-23; 94 of 2352 deaths), and pneumonia (16%, 13-20; 80 of 2352 deaths). Among K pneumoniae isolates tested, 121 (84%) of 144 were resistant to ceftriaxone and 80 (75%) of 106 to gentamicin. INTERPRETATION: K pneumoniae substantially contributed to deaths in the first 2 years of life across multiple high-mortality settings, and resistance to antibiotics used for sepsis treatment was common. Improved strategies are needed to rapidly identify and appropriately treat children who might be infected with this pathogen. These data suggest a potential impact of developing and using effective K pneumoniae vaccines in reducing neonatal, infant, and child deaths globally. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Prevalence of food insecurity amid COVID-19 lockdowns and sociodemographic indicators of household vulnerability in Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia
Muir JA , Dheresa M , Madewell ZJ , Getachew T , Daraje G , Mengesha G , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Cunningham SA . BMC Nutr 2024 10 (1) 7 BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with widespread social disruptions, as governments implemented lockdowns to quell disease spread. To advance knowledge of consequences for households in resource-limited countries, we examine food insecurity during the pandemic period. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study and used logistic regression to examine factors associated with food insecurity. Data were collected between August and September of 2021 through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) using a survey instrument focused on knowledge regarding the spread of COVID-19; food availability; COVID-19 related shocks/coping; under-five child healthcare services; and healthcare services for pregnant women. The study is set in two communities in Eastern Ethiopia, one rural (Kersa) and one urban (Harar), and included a random sample of 880 households. RESULTS: Roughly 16% of households reported not having enough food to eat during the pandemic, an increase of 6% since before the pandemic. After adjusting for other variables, households were more likely to report food insecurity if they were living in an urban area, were a larger household, had a family member lose employment, reported an increase in food prices, or were food insecure before the pandemic. Households were less likely to report food insecurity if they were wealthier or had higher household income. CONCLUSIONS: After taking individual and household level sociodemographic characteristics into consideration, households in urban areas were at higher risk for food insecurity. These findings suggest a need for expanding food assistance programs to more urban areas to help mitigate the impact of lockdowns on more vulnerable households. |
Notes from the field: Transmission of Mpox to nonsexual close contacts - Two U.S. Jurisdictions, May 1-July 31, 2022
Thomas ES , Madewell ZJ , Still WL , Rowse J , Shapiro B , Gately E , Shaffner J , Mangla AT , Ricaldi JN . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (50) 1351-1352 During the 2022 multinational mpox outbreak, U.S. mpox cases primarily occurred among adult gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (1). Among all cases, 94% of patients reported exposure through sexual or other intimate contact (1). Currently, little is known about less common nonsexual mpox transmission. A systematic review of mpox transmission in countries with endemic mpox in Central Africa found that the secondary attack rate among unvaccinated household contacts ranged from 0% to 11%, with a pooled estimate of 8% (2). A better understanding of the risk for nonsexual transmission during the current outbreak in countries where mpox is not endemic is important for developing and implementing future prevention and control strategies. |
Modeling the impacts of antiviral prophylaxis strategies in mitigating seasonal influenza outbreaks in nursing homes
Morris SE , Zipfel CM , Peer K , Madewell ZJ , Brenner S , Garg S , Paul P , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M . Clin Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Antiviral chemoprophylaxis is recommended for use during influenza outbreaks in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among non-ill residents. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance recommends prophylaxis be initiated for all non-ill residents once an influenza outbreak is detected and be continued for at least 14 days and until seven days after the last laboratory-confirmed influenza case is identified. However, not all facilities strictly adhere to this guidance and the impact of such partial adherence is not fully understood. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental framework to model influenza transmission within an average-sized U.S. nursing home. We compared the number of symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations under varying prophylaxis implementation strategies, in addition to different levels of prophylaxis uptake and adherence by residents and healthcare personnel (HCP). RESULTS: Prophylaxis implemented according to current guidance reduced total symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations among residents by an average of 12% and 36%, respectively, compared with no prophylaxis. We did not find evidence that alternative implementations of prophylaxis were more effective: compared to full adoption of current guidance, partial adoption resulted in increased symptomatic illnesses and/or hospitalizations, and longer or earlier adoption offered no additional improvements. In addition, increasing uptake and adherence among nursing home residents was effective in reducing resident illnesses and hospitalizations, but increasing HCP uptake had minimal indirect impacts for residents. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest benefits of influenza prophylaxis during nursing home outbreaks will likely be achieved through increasing uptake and adherence among residents and following current CDC guidance. |
Hepatic vitamin A concentrations and association with infectious causes of child death
Gupta PM , Madewell ZJ , Gannon BM , Grahn M , Akelo V , Onyango D , Mahtab S , Madhi SA , Giri J , Blau DM , Ramakrishnan U , Stein AD , Whitney CG , Young MF , Tanumihardjo SA , Suchdev PS . J Pediatr 2023 265 113816 OBJECTIVES: To assess postmortem vitamin A (VA) concentrations in children under 5 years of age and evaluate the association between vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and infectious causes of death (CoD). STUDY DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network, liver biopsies collected within 72 hours of death were analyzed from 405 stillbirths and children under 5 years in Kenya and South Africa. Total liver vitamin A (VA) concentrations were quantified using ultra-performance liquid chromatography, and cutoffs of ≤0.1 μmol/g, >0.1 to <0.7 μmol/g, ≥0.7 to <1.0 μmol/g, and ≥1.0 μmol/g were used to define VAD, adequate VA status, high VA, and hypervitaminosis A, respectively. Causes of death (CoD) were determined by expert panel review. RESULTS: Among 366 liver samples with viable extraction, pooled prevalences of VAD, adequacy, high VA, and hypervitaminosis were 34.2%, 51.1%, 6.0%, and 8.7%, respectively. VAD was more common among neonates compared with stillbirths, infants, or children, and among those with low birthweight, underweight, or stunting (p<0.05). When adjusting for site, age, and sex, there was no significant association of VAD with increased infectious CoD (OR 1.9, 95%CI 0.9, 3.8, p=0.073). In stratified analyses, VA deficient boys, but not girls, had an increased risk of infectious CoD (OR 3.4, 95%CI 1.3, 10.3, p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Definitive post-mortem assessment of VA status identified both VAD and VA excess among children under 5 years of age in Kenya and South Africa. VAD in boys was associated with increased risk of infectious mortality. Our findings may inform a transition from universal VA supplementation to targeted strategies in certain countries. |
Knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention: Evidence from health and demographic surveillance in Southern Mozambique
Nhacolo A , Madewell ZJ , Muir JA , Sacoor C , Xerinda E , Matsena T , Jamisse E , Bassat Q , Whitney CG , Mandomando I , Cunningham SA . PLOS Glob Public Health 2023 3 (11) e0002532 Understanding community members' knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and prevention is essential for directing public health interventions to reduce disease spread and improve vaccination coverage. Here, we describe knowledge of COVID-19 transmission, prevention, and symptoms among community residents in Mozambique. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 33,087 households in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Manhiça, Mozambique. Participants were recruited in April 2021 before the Delta variant wave to the peak of Omicron cases in February 2022. Principal components analysis was used to create scores representing knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Multiple imputation and quasi-Poisson regression were used to examine associations between demographic characteristics and sources of COVID-19 information, and knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. We examined whether sources of COVID-19 information mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Across this rural community, 98.2%, 97.0%, and 85.1% of respondents reported knowing how COVID-19 could be prevented, that SARS-CoV-2 can cause disease, and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted, respectively. The most recognized COVID-19 symptoms were cough (51.2%), headaches (44.9%), and fever (44.5%); transmission mechanisms were saliva droplets (50.5%) or aerosol (46.9%) from an infected person; and prevention measures were handwashing (91.9%) and mask-wearing (91.8%). Characteristics associated with greater knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention included having at least primary education, older age, employment, higher wealth, and Christian religion. Respondents who had experienced COVID-19 symptoms were also more likely to possess knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Receiving information from television, WhatsApp, radio, and hospital, mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge scores. These findings support the need for outreach and for community-engaged messaging to promote prevention measures, particularly among people with low education. |
Household hardships and responses to COVID-19 pandemic-related shocks in Eastern Ethiopia
Muir JA , Dheresa M , Madewell ZJ , Getachew T , Daraje G , Mengesha G , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Cunningham SA . BMC Public Health 2023 23 (1) 2086 BACKGROUND: COVID-19 resulted in enormous disruption to life around the world. To quell disease spread, governments implemented lockdowns that likely created hardships for households. To improve knowledge of consequences, we examine how the pandemic period was associated with household hardships and assess factors associated with these hardships. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using quasi-Poisson regression to examine factors associated with household hardships. Data were collected between August and September of 2021 from a random sample of 880 households living within a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) located in the Harari Region and the District of Kersa, both in Eastern Ethiopia. RESULTS: Having a head of household with no education, residing in a rural area, larger household size, lower income and/or wealth, and community responses to COVID-19, including lockdowns and travel restrictions, were independently associated with experiencing household hardships. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify characteristics of groups at-risk for household hardships during the pandemic; these findings may inform efforts to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 and future disease outbreaks. |
Provider adherence to clinical care recommendations for infants and children who died in seven low- and middle-income countries in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network
Rees CA , Igunza KA , Madewell ZJ , Akelo V , Onyango D , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Hossain MZ , Rahman A , Alam M , Scott JAG , Assefa N , Madrid L , Belachew A , Leulseged H , Kotloff KL , Sow SO , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Sidibe D , Sitoe A , Varo R , Ajanovic S , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Tippett Barr BA , Ogbuanu I , Cain CJ , Bassey IA , Luke R , Gassama K , Madhi S , Dangor Z , Mahtab S , Velaphi S , du Toit J , Mutevedzi PC , Blau DM , Breiman RF , Whitney CG . EClinicalMedicine 2023 63 102198 BACKGROUND: Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration. FINDINGS: CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h. INTERPRETATION: Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
COVID-19 impact data for the CHAMPS HDSS network: Data from Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia
Muir JA , Dheresa M , Madewell ZJ , Getachew T , Daraje G , Mengesha G , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Cunningham SA . Data Brief 2023 50 109508 Data were collected as part of the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network to learn about the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on child health and access to care. Data were collected between August and September 2021 through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) operating in Eastern Ethiopia using a survey instrument focused on knowledge about COVID-19 and changes in food availability and healthcare services during the COVID-19 related lockdown. The data are representative of two communities in Eastern Ethiopia, one rural (Kersa) and one urban (Harar), and consist of a random sample of 880 households. |
Stillbirths and neonatal deaths caused by group B streptococcus in Africa and South Asia identified through Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS)
Mahtab S , Madewell ZJ , Madhi SA , Wise A , Swart PJ , Velaphi S , Mandomando I , Bramugy J , Mabunda R , Xerinda E , Scott AG , Assefa N , Madrid L , Bweihun M , Temesgen F , Onyango D , Akelo V , Oliech R , Otieno P , Verani JR , Arifeen SE , Gurley ES , Alam M , Rahman A , Hossain MZ , Sow S , Kotloff K , Tapia M , Keita AM , Sanogo D , Ogbuanu I , Ojulong J , Lako S , Ita O , Kaluma E , Wilson T , Mutevedzi P , Barr BAT , Whitney CG , Blau DM , Bassat Q . Open Forum Infect Dis 2023 10 (9) ofad356 BACKGROUND: Invasive Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a common cause of early-onset neonatal sepsis and is also associated with stillbirth. This study aimed to determine the proportion of stillborn infants and infants who died between 0 and 90 days attributable to GBS using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) in 7 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) participating in Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). METHODS: Deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2021 were investigated with MITS, including culture for bacteria of blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), multipathogen polymerase chain reaction on blood, CSF, and lung tissue and histopathology of lung, liver, and brain. Data collection included clinical record review and verbal autopsy. Expert panels reviewed all information and assigned causes of death. RESULTS: We evaluated 2966 deaths, including stillborn infants (n = 1322), infants who died during first day of life (0 to <24 hours, n = 597), early neonatal deaths (END) (1 day to <7 days; END; n = 593), and deaths from 7 to 90 days (n = 454). Group B Streptococcus was determined to be in the causal pathway of death for 2.7% of infants (79 of 2, 966; range, 0.3% in Sierra Leone to 7.2% in South Africa), including 2.3% (31 of 1322) of stillbirths, 4.7% (28 of 597) 0 to <24 hours, 1.9% (11 of 593) END, and 2.0% (9 of 454) of deaths from 7 to 90 days of age. Among deaths attributed to GBS with birth weight data available, 61.9% (39 of 63) of decedents weighed <2500 grams at birth. Group B Streptococcus sepsis was the postmortem diagnosis for 100% (31 of 31) of stillbirths. For deaths <90 days, postmortem diagnoses included GBS sepsis (83.3%, 40 of 48), GBS meningitis (4.2%, 2 of 48), and GBS pneumonia (2.1%, 1 of 48). CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals significant heterogeneity in the contribution of invasive GBS disease to infant mortality across different countries, emphasizing the need for tailored prevention strategies. Moreover, our findings highlight the substantial impact of GBS on stillbirths, shedding light on a previously underestimated aspect in LMICs. |
Food Insecurity amid COVID-19 Lockdowns: Assessing Sociodemographic Indicators of Vulnerability in Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia (preprint)
Muir JA , Dheresa M , Madewell ZJ , Getachew T , Mengesha G , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Cunningham SA . medRxiv 2023 02 Objective The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with widespread social disruptions, as governments implemented lockdowns to quell disease spread. To advance knowledge of consequences for households in lower-income countries, we examine food insecurity during the pandemic period. Design Cross-sectional study using logistic regression to examine factors associated with food insecurity. Data were collected between August and September of 2021 through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) using a survey instrument focused on knowledge regarding the spread of COVID-19; food availability; COVID-19 related shocks/coping; under-five child healthcare services; and healthcare services for pregnant women. Setting The study is set in two communities in Eastern Ethiopia, one rural and one urban. Participants A random sample of 880 households residing in Kersa and Harar. Results Roughly 16% of households reported not having enough food to eat during the pandemic, an increase of 6% since before the pandemic. After adjusting for other variables, households were more likely to report food insecurity if they were living in an urban area, were a larger household, had a family member lose employment, reported an increase in food prices, or were food insecure before the pandemic. Households were less likely to report food insecurity if they were wealthier or had higher household income. Discussion After taking other characteristics into consideration, households in urban areas were at higher risk for food insecurity. These findings point to the need for expanding food assistance programs to more urban areas to help mitigate the impact of lockdowns on more vulnerable households. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Household Hardships and Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Shocks in Eastern Ethiopia (preprint)
Muir JA , Dheresa M , Madewell ZJ , Getachew T , Daraje G , Mengesha G , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Cunningham SA . medRxiv 2023 02 Background: COVID-19 caused enormous disruption to life in the 21st century. To quell disease spread, governments implemented lockdowns that likely created hardships for households. To improve knowledge of consequences, we examine how the pandemic period was associated with household hardships and assess factors associated with these hardships. Method(s): We conducted a cross-sectional study using quasi-Poisson regression to examine factors associated with household hardships. Data were collected between August and September of 2021 from a random sample of 880 households living within a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) located in the Harari Region and the District of Kersa, both in Eastern Ethiopia. Result(s): Having a head of household with no education, residing in a rural area, larger household size, lower income and/or wealth, and community responses to COVID-19, including lockdowns and travel restrictions, were independently associated with experiencing household hardships. Conclusion(s): Our results identify characteristics of groups at-risk for household hardships during the pandemic; these findings may inform efforts to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 and future disease outbreaks. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Knowledge of COVID-19 Symptoms, Transmission, and Prevention: Evidence from Health and Demographic Surveillance in Southern Mozambique (preprint)
Nhacolo AQ , Madewell ZJ , Muir JA , Sacoor CN , Xerinda EG , Matsena T , Bassat Q , Whitney CG , Mandomando IM , Cunningham SA . medRxiv 2023 03 Over 230,000 COVID-19 cases and over 2,200 deaths have been reported in Mozambique though May 2023. Understanding community members' knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and prevention is essential for directing public health interventions to reduce disease spread and improve vaccination coverage. Here, we describe knowledge of COVID-19 transmission, prevention, and symptoms among community residents in Mozambique. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 33,087 households in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Manhica, Mozambique. Participants were recruited at the tail end of the Delta variant wave in September 2021 to the peak of Omicron cases in January 2022. Principal components analysis was used to create scores representing knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Multiple imputation and quasi-Poisson regression were used to examine associations between demographic characteristics and sources of COVID-19 information, and knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. We examined whether sources of COVID-19 information mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Across this rural community, 98.2%, 97.0%, and 85.1% of respondents reported knowing how COVID-19 could be prevented, that SARS-CoV-2 can cause disease, and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted, respectively. Most cited symptoms were cough (51.2%), headaches (44.9%), and fever (44.5%); transmission mechanisms were droplets (50.5%) or aerosol (<5 microm diameter) (46.9%) from an infected person; and prevention measures were handwashing (91.9%) and mask-wearing (91.8%). Characteristics associated with greater knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention included having at least primary education, older age, employment, higher wealth, and Christian religion. Respondents who had had COVID-19 symptoms were also more likely to have knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Gathering information from TV, WhatsApp, radio, and hospital mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge scores. These findings support the need for outreach and for community-engaged messaging to promote prevention measures, particularly among people with low education. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Serial interval and incubation period estimates of monkeypox virus infection in 12 U.S. jurisdictions, May - August 2022 (preprint)
Madewell ZJ , Charniga K , Masters NB , Asher J , Fahrenwald L , Still W , Chen J , Kipperman N , Bui D , Shea M , Saathoff-Huber L , Johnson S , Harbi K , Berns AL , Perez T , Gateley E , Spicknall IH , Nakazawa Y , Gift TL . medRxiv 2022 30 Using data collected by 12 U.S. health departments, we report mean estimated serial interval for monkeypox virus infection of 8.5 (95% CrI: 7.3 - 9.9) days for symptom onset from 57 case pairs and mean estimated incubation period of 5.6 (4.3 - 7.8) days from 35 case pairs for symptom onset. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Nowcasting and Forecasting the 2022 U.S. Mpox Outbreak: Support for Public Health Decision Making and Lessons Learned (preprint)
Charniga K , Madewell ZJ , Masters NB , Asher J , Nakazawa Y , Spicknall IH . medRxiv 2023 17 Mpox is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa. In May 2022, an outbreak of mpox characterized by human-to-human transmission was detected in multiple non-endemic countries. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naive Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Causes of death among infants and children in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network
Bassat Q , Blau DM , Ogbuanu IU , Samura S , Kaluma E , Bassey IA , Sow S , Keita AM , Tapia MD , Mehta A , Kotloff KL , Rahman A , Islam KM , Alam M , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Baillie V , Mutevedzi P , Mahtab S , Thwala BN , Tippett Barr BA , Onyango D , Akelo V , Rogena E , Onyango P , Omore R , Mandomando I , Ajanovic S , Varo R , Sitoe A , Duran-Frigola M , Assefa N , Scott JAG , Madrid L , Tesfaye T , Dessie Y , Madewell ZJ , Breiman RF , Whitney CG , Madhi SA . JAMA Netw Open 2023 6 (7) e2322494 IMPORTANCE: The number of deaths of children younger than 5 years has been steadily decreasing worldwide, from more than 17 million annual deaths in the 1970s to an estimated 5.3 million in 2019 (with 2.8 million deaths occurring in those aged 1-59 months [53% of all deaths in children aged <5 years]). More detailed characterization of childhood deaths could inform interventions to improve child survival. OBJECTIVE: To describe causes of postneonatal child deaths across 7 mortality surveillance sentinel sites in Africa and Asia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network conducts childhood mortality surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia using innovative postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). In this cross-sectional study, MITS was conducted in deceased children aged 1 to 59 months at 7 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia from December 3, 2016, to December 3, 2020. Data analysis was conducted between October and November 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The expert panel attributed underlying, intermediate, and immediate conditions in the chain of events leading to death, based on histopathologic analysis, microbiological diagnostics, clinical data, and verbal autopsies. RESULTS: In this study, MITS was performed in 632 deceased children (mean [SD] age at death, 1.3 [0.3] years; 342 [54.1%] male). The 6 most common underlying causes of death were malnutrition (104 [16.5%]), HIV (75 [11.9%]), malaria (71 [11.2%]), congenital birth defects (64 [10.1%]), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs; 53 [8.4%]), and diarrheal diseases (46 [7.2%]). When considering immediate causes only, sepsis (191 [36.7%]) and LRTI (129 [24.8%]) were the 2 dominant causes. An infection was present in the causal chain in 549 of 632 deaths (86.9%); pathogens most frequently contributing to infectious deaths included Klebsiella pneumoniae (155 of 549 infectious deaths [28.2%]; 127 [81.9%] considered nosocomial), Plasmodium falciparum (122 of 549 [22.2%]), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (109 of 549 [19.9%]). Other organisms, such as cytomegalovirus (57 [10.4%]) and Acinetobacter baumannii (39 [7.1%]; 35 of 39 [89.7%] considered nosocomial), also played important roles. For the top underlying causes of death, the median number of conditions in the chain of events leading to death was 3 for malnutrition, 3 for HIV, 1 for malaria, 3 for congenital birth defects, and 1 for LRTI. Expert panels considered 494 of 632 deaths (78.2%) preventable and 26 of 632 deaths (4.1%) preventable under certain conditions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study investigating causes of child mortality in the CHAMPS Network, results indicate that, in these high-mortality settings, infectious diseases continue to cause most deaths in infants and children, often in conjunction with malnutrition. These results also highlight opportunities for action to prevent deaths and reveal common interaction of various causes in the path toward death. |
Serial interval and incubation period estimates of monkeypox virus infection in 12 jurisdictions, United States, May-August 2022
Madewell ZJ , Charniga K , Masters NB , Asher J , Fahrenwald L , Still W , Chen J , Kipperman N , Bui D , Shea M , Saunders K , Saathoff-Huber L , Johnson S , Harbi K , Berns AL , Perez T , Gateley E , Spicknall IH , Nakazawa Y , Gift TL . Emerg Infect Dis 2023 29 (4) 818-821 Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs. |
Causes of death identified in neonates enrolled through Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS), December 2016 -December 2021
Mahtab S , Madhi SA , Baillie VL , Els T , Thwala BN , Onyango D , Tippet-Barr BA , Akelo V , Igunza KA , Omore R , Arifeen SE , Gurley ES , Alam M , Chowdhury AI , Rahman A , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Ajanovic S , Sitoe A , Varo R , Sow SO , Kotloff KL , Badji H , Tapia MD , Traore CB , Ogbuanu IU , Bunn J , Luke R , Sannoh S , Swarray-Deen A , Assefa N , Scott JAG , Madrid L , Marami D , Fentaw S , Diaz MH , Martines RB , Breiman RF , Madewell ZJ , Blau DM , Whitney CG . PLOS Glob Public Health 2023 3 (3) e0001612 Each year, 2.4 million children die within their first month of life. Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) established in 7 countries aims to generate accurate data on why such deaths occur and inform prevention strategies. Neonatal deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2021 were investigated with MITS within 24-72 hours of death. Testing included blood, cerebrospinal fluid and lung cultures, multi-pathogen PCR on blood, CSF, nasopharyngeal swabs and lung tissue, and histopathology examination of lung, liver and brain. Data collection included clinical record review and family interview using standardized verbal autopsy. The full set of data was reviewed by local experts using a standardized process (Determination of Cause of Death) to identify all relevant conditions leading to death (causal chain), per WHO recommendations. For analysis we stratified neonatal death into 24-hours of birth, early (1-<7 days) and late (7-<28 days) neonatal deaths. We analyzed 1458 deaths, 41% occurring within 24-hours, 41% early and 18% late neonatal deaths. Leading underlying causes of death were complications of intrapartum events (31%), complications of prematurity (28%), infections (17%), respiratory disorders (11%), and congenital malformations (8%). In addition to the underlying cause, 62% of deaths had additional conditions and 14% had ≥3 other conditions in the causal chain. The most common causes considering the whole causal chain were infection (40%), prematurity (32%) and respiratory distress syndrome (28%). Common maternal conditions linked to neonatal death were maternal hypertension (10%), labour and delivery complications (8%), multiple gestation (7%), placental complications (6%) obstructed labour and chorioamnionitis (5%, each). CHAMPS' findings showing the full causal chain of events that lead to death, in addition to maternal factors, highlights the complexities involved in each death along with the multiple opportunities for prevention. Highlighting improvements to prenatal and obstetric care and infection prevention are urgently needed in high-mortality settings. |
Prioritizing health care strategies to reduce childhood mortality
Madewell ZJ , Whitney CG , Velaphi S , Mutevedzi P , Mahtab S , Madhi SA , Fritz A , Swaray-Deen A , Sesay T , Ogbuanu IU , Mannah MT , Xerinda EG , Sitoe A , Mandomando I , Bassat Q , Ajanovic S , Tapia MD , Sow SO , Mehta A , Kotloff KL , Keita AM , Tippett Barr BA , Onyango D , Oele E , Igunza KA , Agaya J , Akelo V , Scott JAG , Madrid L , Kelil YE , Dufera T , Assefa N , Gurley ES , El Arifeen S , Spotts Whitney EA , Seib K , Rees CA , Blau DM . JAMA Netw Open 2022 5 (10) e2237689 IMPORTANCE: Although child mortality trends have decreased worldwide, deaths among children younger than 5 years of age remain high and disproportionately circumscribed to sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. Tailored and innovative approaches are needed to increase access, coverage, and quality of child health care services to reduce mortality, but an understanding of health system deficiencies that may have the greatest impact on mortality among children younger than 5 years is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate which health care and public health improvements could have prevented the most stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 5 years using data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used longitudinal, population-based, and mortality surveillance data collected by CHAMPS to understand preventable causes of death. Overall, 3390 eligible deaths across all 7 CHAMPS sites (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) between December 9, 2016, and December 31, 2021 (1190 stillbirths, 1340 neonatal deaths, 860 infant and child deaths), were included. Deaths were investigated using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), a postmortem approach using biopsy needles for sampling key organs and fluids. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For each death, an expert multidisciplinary panel reviewed case data to determine the plausible pathway and causes of death. If the death was deemed preventable, the panel identified which of 10 predetermined health system gaps could have prevented the death. The health system improvements that could have prevented the most deaths were evaluated for each age group: stillbirths, neonatal deaths (aged <28 days), and infant and child deaths (aged 1 month to <5 years). RESULTS: Of 3390 deaths, 1505 (44.4%) were female and 1880 (55.5%) were male; sex was not recorded for 5 deaths. Of all deaths, 3045 (89.8%) occurred in a healthcare facility and 344 (11.9%) in the community. Overall, 2607 (76.9%) were deemed potentially preventable: 883 of 1190 stillbirths (74.2%), 1010 of 1340 neonatal deaths (75.4%), and 714 of 860 infant and child deaths (83.0%). Recommended measures to prevent deaths were improvements in antenatal and obstetric care (recommended for 588 of 1190 stillbirths [49.4%], 496 of 1340 neonatal deaths [37.0%]), clinical management and quality of care (stillbirths, 280 [23.5%]; neonates, 498 [37.2%]; infants and children, 393 of 860 [45.7%]), health-seeking behavior (infants and children, 237 [27.6%]), and health education (infants and children, 262 [30.5%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study, interventions prioritizing antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal care could have prevented the most deaths among children younger than 5 years because 75% of deaths among children younger than 5 were stillbirths and neonatal deaths. Measures to reduce mortality in this population should prioritize improving existing systems, such as better access to antenatal care, implementation of standardized clinical protocols, and public education campaigns. |
Prioritising health-care strategies to reduce childhood mortality, insights from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS): a longitudinal study
Madewell ZJ , Whitney CG , Assefa N , Bassat Q , Arifeen SE , Gurley ES , Jambai A , Kotloff KL , Madhi SA , Mandomando I , Ogbuanu IU , Onyango D , Scott JAG , Sow SO , Barr BAT , Blau DM . Lancet Glob Health 2022 10 Suppl 1 S8 BACKGROUND: Globally, mortality in children younger than 5 years has been decreasing over the past few decades, but high under-5 mortality persists across regions of sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Interventions-such as improved quality of clinical and antenatal care, better access to emergency obstetrical procedures, better triage and risk stratification, better immunisation coverage, or infection control measures-could substantially reduce deaths, but it is unclear which strategies could save the most lives. We aimed to use data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network to examine which health-care and public health improvements could have prevented the most deaths. METHODS: We used standardised, population-based, mortality surveillance data collected by CHAMPS from seven sites (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) to understand preventable causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Deaths were investigated with minimally invasive tissue sampling, a post-mortem approach using biopsy needles for sampling key organs and body fluids. For each death, an expert panel reviewed case data to determine whether the death was preventable and (if preventable) provided recommendations as to how the death could have been avoided. We evaluated which health system improvements could have prevented the most deaths among those who underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling for each age group: stillbirths, neonatal deaths (aged <28 days), and infant or child deaths (aged 1 month to <5 years). FINDINGS: We included 1982 eligible deaths (with minimally invasive tissue sampling performed) that occurred between Dec 9, 2016, and Feb 29, 2020, including 556 stillbirths, 828 neonatal deaths, and 598 child deaths. Of these 1982 deaths across all seven CHAMPS sites, 393 (71%) stillbirths, 583 (70%) neonatal deaths, and 487 (81%) child deaths were deemed preventable. The most recommended measures to prevent deaths were improvements in antenatal or obstetric care (recommended for 44% of stillbirths and 31% of neonatal deaths), clinical management and quality of care (stillbirths 26%, neonates 32%, children 46%), health-seeking behaviour (children 24%), and health education (children 22%). Given that 70% of under-5 deaths are stillbirths and neonatal deaths, an intervention that focuses on these age groups (eg, improved antenatal care) could prevent the most under-5 deaths. INTERPRETATION: These data indicate areas in which greater focus on improving existing systems could prevent the most deaths. Investments in interventions such as better access to antenatal care, improvements in clinical practice, and public education campaigns could substantially reduce child mortality. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1126780). |
Inverse association between dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infection and indicators of household air pollution in Santa Rosa, Guatemala: A case-control study, 2011-2018
Madewell ZJ , Lopez MR , Espinosa-Bode A , Brouwer KC , Sanchez CG , McCracken JP . PLoS One 2020 15 (6) e0234399 BACKGROUND: Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses are increasingly important public health problems. Burning vegetation, leaves, and other plant products have been shown to be effective mosquito repellents for their vector, Aedes spp., but there has been scant research on whether firewood cooking smoke in households influences mosquito populations or mosquito-borne diseases. About 2.9 billion people worldwide use biomass fuel for household cooking and heating, resulting in an estimated 1.6 million deaths annually from household air pollution (HAP)-related diseases. Global health agencies now encourage households to transition from biomass to clean fuels, but it is unclear whether such interventions may actually increase risk for mosquito-borne diseases. This retrospective case-control study evaluated associations between arboviral infections and cooking with firewood in Santa Rosa, Guatemala. METHOD: Vigilancia Integrada Comunitaria (VICo) was a prospective public health surveillance system for bacterial, parasitic, and viral causes of diarrheal, neurological, respiratory, and febrile illnesses in hospitals and clinics in the department of Santa Rosa, Guatemala. Enrolled VICo in-patients and out-patients during 2011-2018 were interviewed using standardized questionnaires on demographics and household characteristics. Blood and stool specimens were collected and tested to identify the etiologies presenting symptoms. Cases were defined as laboratory-positive for dengue, chikungunya, or Zika virus infections. Controls were laboratory-positive for bacterial and viral diarrheal illnesses (e.g., Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Escherichia coli, rotavirus, norovirus, sapovirus, or astrovirus). Cooking with firewood, kitchen location, stove type, and firewood cooking frequency were the independent exposure variables. Logistic regression models were used to analyze unadjusted and adjusted associations between arboviral infections and exposures of interest. RESULT: There were 311 arboviral cases and 1,239 diarrheal controls. Arboviral infections were inversely associated with cooking with firewood in the main house (AOR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.08-0.57), cooking with firewood on an open hearth (AOR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.33-0.78), and cooking with firewood >/=5 times per week (AOR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.36-0.81), adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status index, number of people per household, community population density, community elevation, recruitment location, season, and admission year. CONCLUSION: Several primary determinants of HAP exposure were inversely associated with arboviral infections. Additional studies are needed to understand whether interventions to reduce HAP might actually increase risk for mosquito-borne infectious diseases, which would warrant improved education and mosquito control efforts in conjunction with fuel interventions. |
Comparing vector and human surveillance strategies to detect arbovirus transmission: A simulation study for Zika virus detection in Puerto Rico
Madewell ZJ , Hemme RR , Adams L , Barrera R , Waterman SH , Johansson MA . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019 13 (12) e0007988 BACKGROUND: Detecting and monitoring the transmission of arboviruses such as Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus, and chikungunya virus is critical for prevention and control activities. Previous work has compared the ability of different human-focused surveillance strategies to detect ZIKV transmission in U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, but whether virological surveillance in mosquitoes could represent an effective surveillance system is unclear. OBJECTIVES: We leveraged a unique set of data from human and virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti during the 2016 ZIKV epidemic in Caguas, Puerto Rico, to compare alternative strategies for detecting and monitoring ZIKV activity. METHODS: We developed a simulation model for mosquito and human surveillance strategies and simulated different transmission scenarios with varying infection rates and mosquito trap densities. We then calculated the expected weekly number of detected infections, the probability of detecting transmission, and the number of tests needed and compared the simulations with observed data from Caguas. RESULTS: In simulated high transmission scenarios (1 infection per 1,000 people per week), the models demonstrated that both approaches had estimated probabilities of detection of greater than 78%. In simulated low incidence scenarios, vector surveillance had higher sensitivity than human surveillance and sensitivity increased with more traps, more trapping effort, and testing. In contrast, the actual data from Caguas indicated that human virological surveillance was more sensitive than vector virological surveillance during periods of both high and low transmission. CONCLUSION: In scenarios where human surveillance is not possible or when transmission intensity is very low, virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti may be able to detect and monitor ZIKV epidemic activity. However, surveillance for humans seeking care for Zika-like symptoms likely provides an equivalent or more sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in most circumstances. |
Associations between household environmental factors and immature mosquito abundance in Quetzaltenango, Guatemala
Madewell ZJ , Sosa S , Brouwer KC , Juarez JG , Romero C , Lenhart A , Cordon-Rosales C . BMC Public Health 2019 19 (1) 1729 BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti-borne diseases are becoming major public health problems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. While socioeconomic status has been associated with larval mosquito abundance, the drivers or possible factors mediating this association, such as environmental factors, are yet to be identified. We examined possible associations between proximity to houses and roads and immature mosquito abundance, and assessed whether these factors and mosquito prevention measures mediated any association between household environmental factors and immature mosquito abundance. METHODS: We conducted two cross-sectional household container surveys in February-March and November-December, 2017, in urban and rural areas of Quetzaltenango, Guatemala. We used principal components analysis to identify factors from 12 variables to represent the household environment. One factor which included number of rooms in house, electricity, running water, garbage service, cable, television, telephone, latrine, well, and sewer system, was termed "environmental capital." Environmental capital scores ranged from 0 to 5.5. Risk factors analyzed included environmental capital, and distance from nearest house/structure, paved road, and highway. We used Poisson regression to determine associations between distance to nearest house/structure, roads, and highways, and measures of immature mosquito abundance (total larvae, total pupae, and positive containers). Using cubic spline generalized additive models, we assessed non-linear associations between environmental capital and immature mosquito abundance. We then examined whether fumigation, cleaning containers, and distance from the nearest house, road, and highway mediated the relationship between environmental capital and larvae and pupae abundance. RESULTS: We completed 508 household surveys in February-March, and we revisited 469 households in November-December. Proximity to paved roads and other houses/structures was positively associated with larvae and pupae abundance and mediated the associations between environmental capital and total numbers of larvae/pupae (p </= 0.01). Distance to highways was not associated with larval/pupal abundance (p >/= 0.48). Households with the lowest and highest environmental capital had fewer larvae/pupae than households in the middle range (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that proximity to other houses and paved roads was associated with greater abundance of larvae and pupae. Understanding risk factors such as these can allow for improved targeting of surveillance and vector control measures in areas considered at higher risk for arbovirus transmission. |
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